NATO and Russian military chiefs and ambassadors were holding talks today in Brussels aimed at bridging differences on missile defences for Europe. Russian General Nikolai Makarov flew into Brussels to meet with fellow chiefs of staff from the 28-nation Alliance for discussions in the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) format, which also included a separate meeting of NRC ambassadors.
The two groups are looking to build on last November’s Lisbon summit, when the two sides agreed to undertake a joint analysis "of the future framework for missile defence cooperation". The first draft of that analysis is to be completed by June this year so that it can be assessed by NATO and Russian defence ministers. US President Barack Obama and Medvedev also agreed at their July 2009 summit to "analyze the ballistic missile challenges of the 21st century and to prepare appropriate recommendations".
But since Lisbon both sides have offered differing visions about missile defences, with NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen insisting on keeping two independent systems and Russia calling for a "sectoral" system, in which each side would shoot down missiles coming from a certain geographic area.
NATO member states such as Romania are in talks with Washington on hosting elements of the missile shield, and at his monthly press briefing earlier this week Rasmussen said NATO would be looking into command and control issues and reporting back to defence ministers in March. Also this week, Germany is hosting a computer-based demonstration of NATO'sActive Layered Theater Ballistic Missile Defense (ALTBMD), which is designed to protect troops in the European theatre, but is also a building block for the proposed territorial missile defence system that will utilise largely US technology.
Moscow has long been wary of missile defence initiatives in Europe, asserting they could undermine its own nuclear deterrent. President Dmitry Medvedev has warned it would withdraw from any missile defence deal if it does not think it is being treated as an equal partner and would instead move to expand its nuclear arsenal. "Our partners have to understand that we do not want this simply to have some common toys that NATO and us can play with, but because we want adequate protection for Russia," Medvedev said in televised remarks.
Earlier in January, Moscow’s NATO envoy Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin said "Russia has proposed not to create two different systems that would exchange information. This would not be a European missile defence shield but a system aimed at deterring Russia's nuclear potential under the guise of protection against Iranian missiles".
Russia insists that it needs commitments from the US and NATO that the planned missile defences will not target its strategic nuclear forces, but it is very difficult to see the White House agreeing to any cooperation that would constrain either the US’ Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) or NATO's ALTBMD. Indeed, it was such claims of restraint by Senate Republicans that almost derailed ratification of the New START.
Thus, an agreement on a cooperative missile system that would transform the Moscow-NATO relationship still appears to be some way off. One potential way forward would be for NATO to agree the sectoral proposal as long as it does not exclude the US and NATO from deploying radars and interceptors to target intermediate and intercontinental missile threats that may emerge from countries located south of Russia, including Iran.
Ahead of the NRC meeting, Rasmussen, who has championed better ties with Russia, offered the Alliance's "solidarity" after the death of 35 people in a suicide bombing at Moscow's main airport.