By Ian Davis, NATO Watch
The United States, Russia, Ukraine and the EU reached a tentative agreement yesterday that called for armed pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine to surrender the government buildings they have seized, as well as outlining other steps to defuse the crisis.
The crisis is far from over, however. President Obama said the agreement offered “a glimmer of hope,” but added that the United States would take more punitive action if Russia did not abide by its terms.
The Geneva agreement calls on all sides in Ukraine to refrain from violence or provocative behavior. “All illegal armed groups must be disarmed,” the joint statement said. “All illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated”.
For its part, the interim Ukrainian government agreed to grant amnesty to protesters who leave the government buildings they have occupied and give up their arms, unless they are suspected of murder or other capital crimes. The Kiev government would also ensure that constitutional revisions involve “outreach to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies,” a reference to Russian speakers in the eastern part of the country.
However, scepticism persists within NATO as to whether Russia will comply. Hence, while agreement was being reached in Geneva, NATO announced that it is sending part of its naval rapid reaction force to the Baltic Sea to further bolster the defence of Eastern European allies.
The NATO "mine counter measures" group of five small ships — four minesweepers and a support vessel — will be sent to the Baltic Sea "for the foreseeable future," a spokesman for NATO's Maritime Command said. The ships from Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium and Estonia make up one of four NATO naval groups that the alliance has on standby. "During this period of tension, we felt it appropriate to deploy (the group) to the Baltic Sea as part of a broad package of actions by NATO's maritime, air, and ground forces," NATO's top commander Gen. Philip Breedlove said.
NATO has already said it will triple its usual number of fighter jets patrolling over the Baltics from next month and Canada announced yesterday that it will contribute six CF-18 jet fighters to the air-policing mission. The Canadian fighter jets will join aircraft from the United States, Britain, Denmark, Poland, Portugal and Germany, which will deploy on rotation between now and the Autumn.
NATO plans to boost defences in Eastern Europe through a series of temporary deployments of military forces and exercises. One of the exercises, Rapid Trident 2014, is due to take place in Ukraine in July.
Meanwhile, Gen. Breedlove took to the blogosphere yesterday to directly accuse Russia of fermenting the unrest in Ukraine. In a post titled "Who Are the Men Behind the Masks?" he asserts:
It's hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities. It's hard to fathom because it's simply not true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia.
Breedlove sets out a number of reasons for reaching this conclusion, including that the "'activists in eastern Ukraine' exhibit tell-tale military training and equipment and work together in a way that is consistent with troops who are part of a long-standing unit, not spontaneously stood up from a local militia". They also handle their weapons with great care, coordinate the use of tear gas and stun grenades, under the control of specific commanders on the ground, launch coordinated operations, and carry weapons and equipment that is primarily issued by the Russian army. "Any one of the points above taken alone would not be enough to come to a conclusion on this issue, but taken in the aggregate, the story is clear", Breedlove writes.
Georgia is another country that is a source of Russia-NATO tension and yesterday the alliance agreed to assist Tbilisi in reviewing its reserve and mobilisation system. Expert assistance to the Georgian armed forces in developing a "project concept" will be provided by the US, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark and Poland during a meeting later this summer.