By Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch
Key points:
• NATO Foreign Ministers reaffirmed in December 2012 that transition is on track, an assessment backed by a recent US DoD report.
• This optimistic picture is not universally shared and bellies a number of complex problems ahead, some of which are highlighted in the US DoD report, including the rise of ‘insider attacks’, safe havens in Pakistan, the limited institutional capacity of the Afghan government and endemic corruption.
• Desertion rates and other broad problems with the Afghan security forces also suggest that it would be a “challenge” to have them ready to defend their own country by the end of 2014
• The size and nature of the US and NATO post-2014 commitment to Afghanistan is still to be determined.
• Some clarity on the pace of troop withdrawals by key ISAF contributing nations has been provided as well as their future commitments post-2014. Overall, however, the outlook remains uncertain.
• NATO’s withdrawal process is an enormous logistics challenge which is also dogged by uncertainties that also may impact on the post-2014 security transition
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