Why did Russian drones enter Polish airspace and what are the options for de-escalation?

EXPLAINER BRIEF 

14 September 2025

Russian drones entered Polish airspace from Belarus on 10 September 2025, either as part of a large-scale attack on Ukraine or as a deliberate incursion against Poland. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Polish airspace was violated 19 times and at least three drones were shot down. While Russia stated it was unintentional, Polish and NATO officials believe the incursion was a deliberate provocation designed to test the alliance's defences.

Multiple reports indicate that Russia's ‘Gerbera’ drones were involved in the incursion into Polish airspace. The Gerbera is a long-range, one-way attack drone, similar in design and function to the Iranian-designed Shahed drones. It is often used as a decoy to overload air defences, but it can also be equipped with a small warhead or used for reconnaissance.

This was not the first Russia-Ukraine war-related violation of NATO airspace since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but it was by far the largest. Russian drones have previously landed (harmlessly) or flown into Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania Poland, Romania and Moldova. A stray Ukrainian air defence missile killed two Polish civilians in November 2022, but was initially suspected to be a Russian missile and led to an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors.

This explainer brief sets out:

• The conflicting explanations for the incident
• Russia’s potential motivations (according to Western analysts)
• The immediate responses by Polish, NATO and Ukrainian forces
• The conflicting viewpoints on the next steps
• The combination of diplomatic and military actions needed to de-escalate the incident.

Key takeaway 

The 10 September incursion was a stress test for NATO’s Rules of Engagement (RoE), exposing how the alliance addresses ambiguous, low-intensity threats during a neighbouring war. While a firm response has been initiated through Eastern Sentry, NATO must also avoid overhyping the incident or engaging in rhetoric that closes off diplomatic options. The goal is de-escalation, not further escalation toward open conflict. 

Read more in the attached pdf.