6 July 2025
The Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob announced on 4 July that he would call a consultative referendum on the country’s NATO membership after a surprise defeat in parliament on a military spending bill.
Golob’s damage control effort is in response to a successful initiative by the Left Party, a junior partner in his centre-left coalition, calling for a different consultative referendum on planned increases in military spending. The Left Party opposes higher military spending and is against Slovenia's NATO membership. It tabled the resolution after the National Assembly passed a declaration in early June determining that military expenditure in Slovenia will rise to 2% of GDP this year and 3% of GDP by 2030.
The liberal Freedom Movement party led by Golob voted against the initiative, while his junior coalition partners—the Social Democrats and The Left Party—sided with the conservative opposition to back it, deepening rifts within the ruling bloc. Slovenian MPs approved the proposal 46 to 42 in the National Assembly on 4 July. The question to be put to voters will be whether they are "in favour of the Republic of Slovenia increasing defence expenditure in such a way that it will reach 3% of gross domestic product annually by 2030, which is roughly €2.1 billion".
Discontent has been rising since Slovenia signed up to higher NATO military spending commitments at the Hague NATO summit on 24 June, which envisages member states raising military expenditure to 5% of GDP by 2035. Slovenia is one of the countries that failed to meet NATO’s previous 2% GDP spending target in 2024, although it aims to do so by the end of 2025. The coalition has been under severe pressure as the Left Party and the Social Democrats have expressed fears that these increases in military spending will crowd out welfare spending.
Golob said his counter-referendum idea was intended to “dispel any doubt as to the true will of the people”. "There are only two ways: either we remain in NATO and pay membership, or we leave the alliance. Everything else is populist deceit of the citizens of Slovenia," Golob was quoted as saying on the government's official X profile.
Although consultative referendums are not legally binding in Slovenia, they do carry political weight, and the vote was framed by the opposition as a chance to hold a much-needed debate on security and hold the government to account. Opposition conservative SDS leader Janez Janša—a close ally of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and a staunch Trump supporter —called on Golob to link a vote of confidence in the government to the referendum result, which Golob refused. Janša acknowledged that the referendum cannot actually be won, which is why he suggested voters cast an invalid vote and add the words "down with the incompetent government" on the ballot. He said commitments made in the framework of NATO must be honoured.
The referendum proposal on NATO membership is expected to be formally tabled next week.