By Nigel Chamberlain and Ian Davis, NATO Watch
Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on 11 March that the Russian Navy was planning to dispatch a permanent fleet to the Mediterranean. Admiral Viktor Chirkov said that five to six cruisers and frigates, backed up by supply ships, will provide the core of the fleet and will be under the command of the Black Sea Fleet.
During the Cold War, the then Soviet Fifth Mediterranean fleet, consisting of at least 30 to 50 vessels, operated in the Mediterranean Sea from 1967 to 1992 and was intended to counter the US Navy's Sixth Fleet. The Russian Navy has been conducting large-scale naval manoeuvres in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea in recent years.
This deployment follows a 10 day naval exercise in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean in January this year. More than 20 surface ships, 3 submarines and twenty five aircraft including strategic bombers participated in the exercise. The surface group included four beach assault ships which had spent two months shuttling between the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and the Syrian port of Tartus.
Tartus is also a Russian naval supply and maintenance facility staffed by Russian naval personnel. It is the only Mediterranean port Russia has access to and is of vital strategic importance as without it, Russian warships would have to return to their Black Sea bases through the Turkish Straits for resupply and essential maintenance. The facility can only accommodate four medium sized vessels if both of its 100 metre long floating piers located on the inside of the northern breakwater are operational. It is not capable of hosting any of the Russian Navy's current major warships.
As President Putin has declared that Tartus is critical to Moscow’s security strategy and as Russia is actively supporting NATO’s anti-piracy operations in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and off the Somali coastline, it might be the case that Russia is interested in developing its facility in Syria and developing new facilities elsewhere in the Mediterranean. In Cyprus, perhaps?
A Russian port on the Greek Cypriot part of the island to match Tartus would require serious investment, however, since the only current port for major shipping is at Famagusta and this is controlled by the Turkish Cypriots. Nonetheless, the development of a Russian security presence on the island is not so fanciful a proposition.
About 40,000 Russian speakers are believed to live on the island and Russian companies are said to have lodged some $25bn in Cypriot bank accounts. Russians and Greek Cypriots also share the Orthodox religion. The Orthodox Church in Cyprus is very powerful and has a lot of land and investments, and stands to lose a lot of money if the banks were to collapse.
Melbourne university lecturer, Dr. Binoy Kampmark explains that Russian investors have found much to admire in the Cypriot banking system in recent times. Protocols on taxation have been ratified between the countries, making the offshore jurisdiction even more attractive. He suggests Cyprus may be “falling into a Russian orbit” as a result of the recent financial crisis and handling by the EU and adds: “There are also international policy dimensions here. Rumours abound that Moscow may get a warm water port after the Syrian crisis has jeopardised its interests”.
The Cypriot Finance Minister, Michael Sarris, who went to Moscow for talks about the current financial crisis, said the country’s banks and its offshore gas riches were areas in which Russia could invest. Russian energy firms, led by state gas export monopoly Gazprom, are interested in offshore gas reserves that Cyprus estimates at 60 trillion cubic feet. However, a bailout with Russian funds failed to materialise today as both sides said no solution had been found.
Could Cyprus turn out to be the next major US/NATO-Russia fault line? The day after the announcement of the Russian naval deployment, the US ambassador to Nicosia John Koenig was reported as welcoming Cyprus’ commitment to strengthen ties with NATO. He also called for careful planning of the new government’s stated goal of joining NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme, adding:
As President Anastasiades has made clear repeatedly both during the campaign and since becoming president that he is committed to strengthening the relationship between Cyprus and the United States and anchoring Cyprus more firmly in the transatlantic set of key relationships, this is something that we welcome and look forward to developing closely with him and his administration in the coming years.
The previous government of Demetris Christofias was vociferously against applying for membership of PfP or developing any relationship with NATO, which the former ruling party AKEL largely blames for the Greek coup of 1974, and subsequent invasion and occupation of Cyprus’ northern third.
The Cyprus conflict has been a constant obstacle in enhancing NATO-EU relations since the island joined the EU in 2004, with Turkey refusing to allow Cyprus to sit in on EU-NATO discussions. For its part, Cyprus blocks Turkey’s membership of the European Defence Agency.
Like Russia, the US also clearly has eyes on Cypriot energy resources. Ambassador Koenig said the US has had “a very consistent policy with regard to the development of the offshore resources of Cyprus. We support Cyprus’ right to explore and develop those resources. We also at the same time do encourage all parties involved in this issue to do nothing that would increase tensions”. With around 30-40,000 Turkish troops still garrisoned in the north of Cyprus—making it one of the most militarized areas in the world in terms of numbers of troops and numbers of civilian population—facing a Cypriot National Guard of 12,000 active personnel and 75,000 reserves, he is right to be concerned, even without the growing Russian presence.