By Paul Lookman
1 July 2025
This article is an abbreviated summary of a long read available here (in Dutch).
In his Heartland Theory, British political geographer Halford John Mackinder argues that the key to world domination lies in control of the landmass of Eurasia, the ‘heartland’. Whoever controls the heartland controls the ‘world island’ of Eurasia and ultimately the world, according to Mackinder. Apparently with this theory in mind, Washington has done everything it can since the Second World War to keep Germany and thereby Europe separate from Russia. With more inhabitants than the US, the EU is an economic giant, but as a satellite of the US it is subordinate to the interests of American business and therefore irrelevant in a multipolar world.
The European unification process is characterised by horizontal integration: a rapid increase in the number of member states. Vertical integration, the transfer of policy areas to the Union, remains a problem. Some member states have an opt-out in certain areas and are therefore only partially bound by European regulations. And there is disagreement about foreign policy. Brussels continues to see the US as a generous global power. But today, US self-interest comes first. It has become a rival. Europe is being played. It was never a partner. It was a willing instrument. It was never protected, it was used to benefit American interests.
A divided and subordinate Europe cannot possibly act as an independent global player. The Union must therefore shift its focus from the transatlantic alliance to a Eurasian one. But whether it will go that way remains the question. The European elites are facing their downfall. The West is suffering a defeat in the war against Russia in Ukraine. Europe is deindustrializing against its will, has to deal with crumbling public services and infrastructure, large budget deficits, stagnant living standards, social and ethnic disharmony, growing populist resistance, and the prospect of sovereign bankruptcy.
It is time for a drastic change of course. Brussels has slavishly followed Washington for too long. It has forgotten how to look after its own geopolitical interests. Europe’s geopolitical position in the world has declined significantly. It has isolated itself. Now that Trump and Putin are discussing EU interests, Brussels has become irrelevant. In Foreign Policy Magazine of 18 February 2025, Dr. Kishore Mahbubani, a leading scholar at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore, made three interesting recommendations:
1. Announce a plan to leave NATO
Europe must free itself from Washington’s stranglehold. Insist on the withdrawal of American troops and weapons. Europe is perfectly capable of taking on its own defence. European armies are inefficiently organized. Organise optimal cooperation. In a Europe outside NATO, there is not even a need for a 2% norm. Set the budget based on real threats. In terms of budget, Europe already has a big lead over Russia. Only in the area of bombers, nuclear weapons and military satellites does Europe lag behind.
2. Conclude a broad strategic agreement with Russia
Is Russia, which can hardly defeat Ukraine, a threat to Europe? Unlikely. The Russian threat is hyped. Europe has never developed a strategy for an independent Russia relationship. Change course, take diplomatic initiatives to reach a peace agreement. NATO leaders openly admit that Ukrainian membership is off the table. Neutrality is therefore the only realistic solution. A neutral Ukraine can trade with East and West, form a bridge between Europe and Russia and serve as a hub in China’s Belt & Road initiative.
3. Develop a new strategic pact with China
Stop sacrificing European strategic interests to serve American interests. Such a policy yields no American reward. China can help the EU tackle its real geopolitical nightmare: the demographic explosion in Africa. The EU risks a growing influx of African migrants. To prevent this, Europe must help Africa develop its economy. Current unilateral European trade agreements must be revised. Europe must invest in Africa. It must welcome foreign investment in Africa that creates jobs and keeps Africans at home. Give up the naive resistance to Chinese investment in Africa.
It is becoming evident that the US refuses to give up its global hegemony. It will demand loyalty from its ‘allies’ in its rivalry with China and Russia. The EU will therefore have to choose. Integrated with Asia, it will remain relevant and will receive a huge economic boost thanks to China’s Belt & Road initiative. Europe must let go of its dependence on the US and NATO.
Paul Lookman is a Dutch geopolitical analyst who has lived in Belgium for 44 years. He is the author of three books, see his profile on his website https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/geopolitiek-in-context-mission-and-credentials/