Afghan Forces will need continuing NATO support for years to come

 but Russia demands a UN mandate

By Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch

The deputy International Security Assistance Force (ISAF ) Commander Lieutenant General Nick Carter said in a recent interview that it was his expectation that NATO and its partners will need to supply the Afghans with air, counter-IED (Improvised Explosive Device) and logistic support for three to five years after the 2014 withdrawal of troops.
 
ISAF plans to move to the fifth, and final, phase of its handover to the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) by the end of June when the latter are expected to take the lead for security and in planning and directing all missions against the insurgents. Carter said the ANSF is still falling short in effective leadership, command and control, logistics and medical evacuation, training its personnel effectively and integrating the army's warfare strategy with the Afghan police and central and provincial government agencies. 
 
These deficiencies are expected to continue long after 2014. In his blunt assessment, Carter indicated that ISAF is under no illusions about the war ending in the foreseeable future and that, even after years more of effort, the optimal results will not be pretty. He said Afghanistan's likely future might be characterised as "a stable instability” while substantial portions of the country will not be very 'connected' to the central government in Kabul. In many parts of Afghanistan, especially rural areas, a combination of local, often corrupt interests will be dominated by warlords, drug lords, tribal leaders or insurgents pursuing their own interests.
 
Continued ISAF support for the ANSF will be critical to address Afghan fears of abandonment. "We would regard the centre of gravity in this campaign as being Afghan confidence," Carter said. "We have to demonstrate a commitment to them that goes beyond the pledges at Chicago and Tokyo”. Political and strategic support will be backed up by donor commitments of $16 billion. However, Carter believes that securing Afghanistan's future is likely to be far more expensive than Washington and other NATO capitals have fully reckoned with yet.
 
Meanwhile, British troops are going to have their tours in Afghanistan lengthened by half while the Afghan exit strategy is being executed. Carter told The Independent that a troop reduction during this period would seriously undermine the gains which have been made. A UK Ministry of Defenced (MoD) spokesperson said: 
 
This decision is based on clear military advice to provide continuity in key posts as we transition to Afghan control and manage troop deployments during key events such as the Afghan Presidential Elections in the Spring. It’s the most effective way of meeting our commitment to the Afghans and the NATO ISAF mission until the end of 2014, at the same time as minimising the number of service personnel who deploy on operations. During this time troops will predominantly be based behind the wire in Camp Bastion carrying out redeployment tasks and training work.
 
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Gennady Gatilov has said: "We insist on the necessity to inform the UN Security Council regularly about NATO plans regarding the future operation in Afghanistan… We need complete clarity regarding the mandate, size and tasks of the possible future operation in Afghanistan, which is to be sanctioned by the UN Security Council.” He added: "In case the mandate of further NATO operation in Afghanistan after 2014 is not confirmed by the UN Security Council, this could create obstacles for our further cooperation with NATO, which is preconditioned by the relevant sanction of the Security Council.”