Escalating conflict between Syria and Turkey

Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch
 
Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc said that his country would respond decisively to Syria’s shooting down of his country’s military jet on Friday which he said was on a reconnaissance sortie. According to a Syrian military account, the Turkish plane was flying fast and low, just one kilometre off the Syrian coast when it was shot down. It had been tracked at first as an unidentified aircraft and its Turkish origin established later. Turkey denied these assertions. Russia supplied the Syrians with their air-defence system and the plane was believed to be a US F4 Phantom.
 
Turkish President Abdullah Gul told reporters that Ankara had been in telephone contact with the Syrian authorities.  Commending Turkey for the restraint shown, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in a telephone call on Saturday with Turkey's Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, expressed his deep concern about the potential serious implications of the incident for the region. 
 
Davutoglu also spoke by phone with foreign ministers from the United States, Britain, France, Russia and Iran, as well as the European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. A spokesman for the Turkish foreign ministry said that they were briefed on Turkey's evaluation of the incident. Turkish officials, military commanders and intelligence officers are focusing on the search for the pilots and Ankara's next steps. According to the Associated Press, Turkey's foreign ministry called the incident an "open and grave violation of international law" that would justify retaliation.
 
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan held two security meetings with senior officials, less than 24 hours after he convened a crisis session on Friday evening. Separately, he called a meeting with the leaders of the country's main opposition parties for Sunday. "Turkey will present its final stance after the incident has been fully brought to light and decisively take the necessary steps," a spokesperson in Erdogan's office said.
 
In an attempt to calm tensions, a Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman insisted that "there was no enmity against Turkey" during an interview with Turkey's state television news. He said that Syria did not realise it was a Turkish jet and that Syria had exercised its ‘sovereign right’ against an ‘unknown’ aircraft.
 
Also urging restraint, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister, Bulent Arinc, said: "We must remain calm and collected."…and… "We must not give premium to any provocative speeches and acts. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey's main opposition party, called for diplomatic channels to be kept open and a "coolheaded assessment".
 
Turkey has also evoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Charter:
 
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
 
Member states have been called to a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday. Although unlikely, it could lead to the evoking of Article 5 of the NATO Charter:
 
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
 
In his recent review of the NATO Summit in Chicago, Karl-Heinz Kamp, the Research Director of the NATO Defence College in Rome, warned that the volatility of the Arab world may present demands for humanitarian intervention and debate about who will contribute to such missions. He also drew attention to the possibility of NATO member states being called for defensive duty to protect Turkey in the event of conflict with Iran. That principle may now be tested because of a different conflict on Turkey’s border.
 
Reuters reported that Turkey's cabinet was due to meet today to discuss Friday's incident, which lent a more threatening international dimension to the 16-month-old uprising against Assad. Britain called the attack over the eastern Mediterranean “outrageous” and said it stood ready to back strong action in the United Nations.
 
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the attack "brazen and unacceptable" and said Washington would cooperate closely with Ankara to promote a transition in Syria. Spanish government sources said European Union foreign ministers would also discuss the incident at a Luxembourg meeting today.
 
Turkey wants to be sure of the strongest backing once it decides its official response, reports the BBC's Jonathan Head in Istanbul. Foreign Minister Davutoglu said he planned to set out Turkey's case to the UN Security Council where Western powers are seeking, against Russian and Chinese opposition, to push through a motion that could allow stronger measures against Assad.
 
Former US Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, points out that Article 5 simply offers NATO allies an opportunity to consult with one another and does not necessarily entail a military response. "A response could be anything from a statement reiterating the inviolability of security guarantees to members coordinating activities so that they can respond to further attacks on Turkish interests," he said.  
 
Volker doesn't believe this incident alone will alter the international community's response to the Syrian conflict, but he does think a NATO meeting on the matter could nurture a broader discussion about how to intervene militarily in Syria outside the UN Security Council, where Russia and China have repeatedly opposed such action.