Afghanistan 2014: Preparing for the Humanitarian Transition

A summary and review by Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch

Introduction

In a recent report for Brookings, Khalid Koser, states that “the dissonance between the debate inside and outside Afghanistan concerning prospects for the next year or so is striking”. While acknowledging that most commentators believe that the Bilateral Security Agreement will eventually be signed and that the ‘zero option’ (no US troops remaining in Afghanistan) is unlikely, he points out that it is still unclear how many troops will stay in Afghanistan after 2014, and what their role will be.
 
Security transition
 
Confidence in the ability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is low and both the army and the police force will require significant international funding and support post-2014. Recent months have witnessed both rising civilian casualties and spread of insurgent activities. The ANSF is unlikely to be able to maintain security across the country in the face of a resurgence of Taliban attacks. Afghans who have worked directly with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are likely to be particular targets.
 
Political transition
 
There are still no obvious candidates to replace President Karzai and there is little public confidence in the efforts to select one. Most analysts predict that the failure to conduct a free and fair vote will result in political violence pitching Karzai’s supporters against supporters of other candidates. A legitimately elected government is unlikely to have the capacity to address the corruption, warlordism and absence of rule of law that currently make so many Afghans feel uncertain about their future prospects. The involvement of the Taliban in any political settlement risks reversing years of progress on women’s rights.
 
Donor countries have made it clear that aid will be conditional on improvements in governance and a reduction in corruption, which few analysts believe can realistically be achieved.
 
Economic transition
 
The World Bank has predicted that the recent quite impressive rate of economic growth in Afghanistan will not be sustained after 2014. It has been estimated that the planned foreign troop withdrawal will directly lower annual growth by two or three percent, as a result of reduced local spending by these forces and by the concurrent withdrawal of foreign civilian organizations with international and national staff.
 
The economic transition will likely also further jeopardize the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of Afghans currently employed to support the ISAF operation. The expected devaluation of the Afghan currency will also affect the purchasing power of Afghans.
 
Humanitarian impact
 
The security, political and economic factors facing Afghanistan post-2014:
 
make prospects for significant returns from Iran and Pakistan of Afghanistan’s millions of refugees very unlikely in the near future; 
 
are likely to prompt further migration and displacement within and outside the country; and
 
will reduce the already very limited capacity of the government to cope with the challenges of internal displacement.
 
The impact of the transitions are also likely to be compounded by their direct effects on the ability of the humanitarian community to respond effectively. Active hostilities will impede delivery of assistance to affected people in Afghanistan and security for humanitarian workers is likely to be jeopardized. International commitment to support humanitarian activities in Afghanistan is already decreasing.
 
Recommendations
 
1. Raise awareness of the humanitarian consequences of the transitions facing Afghanistan, including displacement.
2. Promote and maintain a perception of ‘neutrality’ of the UN within Afghanistan - this is important, especially in light of the increasing violence against people associated with international organizations.
3. Encourage donors to sustain support for humanitarian and development activities in Afghanistan and the sub-region, delinked from military and political agendas and processes.
 
Comment
 
This is an insightful and challenging report which deserves to be widely read and acted up within NATO decision-making bodies. It should be presented to the Secretary-General and he should be asked to comment on its findings and recommendations.