Report shows Afghan insurgency evolving

A new report released by the International Crisis Group (ICG) states that the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan has allowed the Taliban to "muster larger forces, and that in some areas the insurgents and the Afghan security forces were inflicting nearly equal casualties on each other, in another suggestion of increased insurgent strength". The report estimates that the number of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan in 2013 increased by 15 to 20 percent over 2012.
 
The report coincides with the start of the Taliban's 'spring offensive', which killed at least 21 people in attacks across the country.
 
The ICG report recommends that the Afghanistan government sign both the Bilateral Security Agreement with Washington and a Status of Force Agreement with NATO. The agreements are expected to determine the size and scope of any US and NATO troop presence that remains in the country once the combat mission ends in December. The ICG argues that by signing the accords it would help Afghan security forces to reduce their casualties and fight the militants more effectively.
 
Another key recommendation in the ICG report is to "reduce reliance on and ultimately phase out the controversial Afghan Local Police (ALP) program", which is associated with abuse of power and destabilising effects in many parts of the country. The New York Times, for example, reports on police abuse in Kandahar province, where the UN estimates that 81 people disappeared between September 2011 and October 2012.
 

The ICG report concludes that the "overall trend is one of escalating violence and insurgent attacks" and that "the increasing confidence of the insurgents, as evidenced by their ability to assemble bigger formations for assaults, reduces the chances for meaningful national-level peace talks in 2014-2015".