NATO-Russian relations go Cold Turkey over missile defence and CFE Treaty

The Russian president’s threat to deploy missiles to target the NATO European missile defence system marks a new low in recent NATO-Russian relations.

The only ray of light in a growing list of NATO-Russian disagreements was an amusing tweet by Russia’s NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin in which he pointed out that President Medvedev’s threat to target antimissile systems in Europe interrupted the Thanksgiving holiday of the US delegation to NATO. “After Medvedev’s declarations yesterday about the missile shield, the US diplomatic mission to NATO decided to go to work on Thanksgiving Day (Turkey Day). Sorry!” wrote ambassador Rogozin, on his Twitter feed.

In a statement on 23 November, Dmitry Medvedev accused the US and its NATO allies of ignoring Russian concerns over America's proposed missile defence system and said Moscow would take military countermeasures if it did not receive appropriate assurances. US and NATO officials have repeatedly tried to give such assurances and responded along similar lines again: "I do think it's worth reiterating that the European missile defence system that we've been working very hard on with our allies and with Russia over the last few years is not aimed at Russia," said Capt. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman in an interview with Voice of Russia. "It is ... designed to help deter and defeat the ballistic missile threat to Europe and to our allies from Iran".

But Medvedev said Moscow would not be satisfied by simple declarations and wants a legal guarantee setting out the boundaries. He added: "When we propose to put it on paper in the form of precise and clear legal obligations, we hear a strong refusal".

He warned that Moscow would deploy short-range Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, a Baltic Sea region bordering Poland, and place weapons in other areas in Russia's west and south to target US missile defence sites.  Medvedev made a similar threat in 2007 and it is unclear whether the missiles would carry conventional or nuclear warheads.

Russia is not the only country that has been making threats against NATO’s fledgling missile defence infrastructure. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have threatened to target NATO's early warning radar system in neighbouring Turkey if it is threatened by military action.

Medvedev’s sabre-rattling, however, takes place against the backdrop of a long-standing missile defence dispute between Moscow and Washington. The Obama administration has repeatedly said the ‘shield’ is needed to fend off a potential threat from Iran, but Russia fears it could erode the deterrent potential of its nuclear forces and make them vulnerable to a NATO ‘first strike’. Russia is particularly concerned about the last phase of the four-phase programme—known as the Phased Adaptive Approach— scheduled for deployment in 2020, which would field an interceptor capable of shooting down ICBMs. Russia’s nuclear deterrent is predominantly made up of ICBMs.

“Any suggestion that Russia plans to target missiles on the neighbourhood of the alliance is disappointing,” NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said of Medvedev’s statement. “These are comments reminiscent of the past. It is not the sort of announcement consistent with the statement at last year’s NATO-Russia summit in Lisbon in which we said we are seeking a strategic partnership”.

Moscow had agreed to consider a proposal NATO made at the Lisbon summit to cooperate on the ‘missile shield’, but the talks have reached a stalemate over how the system should be operated. Russia has insisted that it should be run jointly, which NATO has rejected. The Russian President’s statement came only a few days after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, held talks that touched on missile defence.

Meanwhile, the failure of a congressional committee to reach a deal that would trim $1.2 trillion from the US federal deficit over the next decade means that large-scale automatic cuts to US military spending have become more likely. And US contributions to European missile defence could be a ripe target for cutting. "A missile defence system for NATO? It's going to be hard to keep people committed if they think the US is picking up the tab for Europe," former US Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker said.

Medvedev also warned that Moscow may opt out of the New START arms control deal with the United States and halt other arms control talks, if the US proceeds with the ‘missile shield’ without meeting Russia's demand. One existing arms control casualty is the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).

On the 22 November the US administration announced in Vienna, that it would “cease carrying out certain obligations” under the CFE Treaty with regard to Russia. This announcement in the CFE Treaty's implementation group came after the US and NATO allies had been trying over the past four years to find a diplomatic solution following Russia's decision in 2007 to cease implementation with respect to all other 29 CFE States. Since then, Russia has refused to accept inspections and ceased to provide information to other CFE Treaty parties on its military forces as required by the Treaty.

The first edition of the CFE Treaty was signed in 1990, during the existence of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The document stipulated a reduction of the number of tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery (larger than 100mm calibre), combat planes and helicopters, as well as information exchange. A renewed variant of the treaty was signed in 1999, which reflected changes in Europe, such as the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the expansion of NATO. However, only Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan ratified the new treaty.

In December 2007, Vladimir Putin decided to suspend Russia's participation in the CFE until the US and its European allies ratified the renewed variant of the treaty. NATO had consistently refused to make any moves in that direction until earlier disputes with Russia over its military deployments in Moldova and Georgia were resolved.

The UK’s Europe Minister David Lidington said despite "considerable efforts to engage the Russian Federation" talks had broken down. The UK has followed the US' declaration that it would halt co-operation with Russia. He added that a situation where 29 nations "fulfilled their Treaty obligations and one did not" could not continue indefinitely.